Overseas transaction prices of bauxite decline; alumina expected to maintain fluctuating trend in short term [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 14

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,841 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,898 yuan/mt and a low of 2,804 yuan/mt, before closing at 2,886 yuan/mt, up 46 yuan/mt or 1.62%, with open interest at 304,000 lots.

Ore: As of May 13, the SMM Import Bauxite Index stood at $70.78/mt, down $2.83/mt from the previous trading day, primarily due to a decline in overseas transaction prices. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, down $1.50/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $75/mt, down $5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $67/mt, down $5/mt from the previous trading day.

Industry Updates:

(1) Overseas Alumina Transactions: On May 9, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $358/mt FOB Western Australia, with a July shipment date.

(2) Overseas Alumina Transactions: On May 12, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $359/mt FOB Western Australia or $356.5/mt FOB Eastern Australia, with a July shipment date.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on May 13, the SMM Alumina Index was at a premium of 72 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Daily Report: On May 13, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 15,600 mt from the previous trading day to 211,000 mt. In Shandong, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. In Henan, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 3,001 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 3,001 mt from the previous trading day to 15,600 mt. In Gansu, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 10,500 mt from the previous trading day to 6,306 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 2,096 mt from the previous trading day to 185,500 mt.

Overseas Market: As of May 13, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $359/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $19.80/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.21. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,167 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 262.76 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed.

Summary:

Last week, alumina enterprises experienced both increases and decreases in operating capacity, with the total operating capacity slightly decreasing by 80,000 mt/year. It is expected that some alumina enterprises will conduct maintenance in the following period, while new alumina capacity is anticipated to continue to come online and ramp up production. In the short term, the operating capacity of alumina may fluctuate. Recently, downstream feedback indicates that spot cargo supply is tight in some regional markets. With suppliers standing firm on quotes, spot prices may rebound slightly. However, on the cost side, bauxite prices have fallen significantly compared to the previous period, weakening the cost support. Overall, the alumina market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this information to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]